About

I've always been fascinated by simulating matches and competitions. With my passion for football betting, I set out to create a tool that could simulate football matches. Before this version, I had already built a simpler version for another website I ran at the time. However, I wanted to include more details, such as goalscorers and a 'live' experience, which led me to develop this improved version of the Match Simulator.

How it works

The core idea was to use real life player data to determine a team’s overall strength. The ten best outfield players and the top goalkeeper were selected, and their average rating was used to calculate the team's strength. By comparing this to the opponent’s average strength, a percentage-based strength value was assigned. For example, if one team had an 80 overall rating and the other had 75, the stronger team’s percentage strength would be calculated as 80 / (80 + 75) = 52%. These values were fine-tuned to better represent real-world team strengths.

These percentages were key to how the simulator functions. For each simulated 'minute' (which corresponds to a real-life second), the algorithm generated a random number to determine the next event. Every possible event was assigned a probability range from 0 to 1000, based on real-world frequency. For example, since an average match has around 20 shots, the chance of a shot occurring in any given minute would be 20/90 = 22%. The event 'shot' would then be assigned a range from 0 to 220. If the generated number fell within this range, a shot would be triggered for one of the teams.

The previously calculated percentage strength was then used to determine which team took the shot. A separate random number between 0 and 100 decided the team—if the number was between 0 and 52, the home team took the shot; if it was between 53 and 100, the away team did.

Additional random values were generated to determine the shot outcome—on target, off target, or hitting the woodwork. If it was on target, another check determined whether it was saved, blocked, or resulted in a goal. This entire process follows the principles of the Poisson distribution, making the simulation as realistic as possible.

Why use it?

It's important to remember that the simulations are just that—simulations. The Match Simulator doesn't guarantee real-world outcomes, with its accuracy ranging between 40% and 50%. So, why should you use it?

First and foremost, it's a fun way to see how matches might unfold—whether you're curious about the outcome of a big game or want to simulate a custom cup or league with your own teams. It’s an enjoyable tool for football fans who want to experiment with match scenarios.

Second, it can be a helpful resource for football-related projects, especially when you need results for non-user-controlled teams. If you’re working on a league or tournament project and need to simulate matches, this tool can save time and provide meaningful results.

Additionally, while the simulator isn't a crystal ball, it can be a great way to spice up football prediction pools or fantasy leagues with friends. I’ve used it myself for competitions like the European Championship, and it’s provided some surprising—and often entertaining—results! Just remember, these simulations are for fun, and their outcomes shouldn’t be used for real-life betting or official predictions.

At its core, the Match Simulator is all about having fun and exploring endless possibilities. Whether you're daydreaming about what-if scenarios, simulating your own fantasy leagues, or simply having a laugh with friends over unpredictable outcomes, this tool offers a playful way to dive deeper into the world of football. It’s a great way to connect with fellow football enthusiasts, spark friendly debates, and bring your football imagination to life. The thrill of seeing how different matchups unfold and discovering unexpected results is what makes the Match Simulator an exciting experience for everyone.